much. >> not one single barrel of oil has been affected by the exchange of fire between israel and hamas, but that doesn't mean that energy markets aren't reacting. oil backing off today on hopes of a cease-fire. but only after climbing to one month highs yesterday. our next guest is joining us now. welcome to the show. in a very basic sense, people make the point that israel does not produce oil, gaza -- >> there's no transportation points. i was asked yesterday well what about the suez canal? egypt is not going to jeopardize all of its relations with the u.s. by closing the suez canal. >> i mean, you're very optimistic to think that this sort of instability in the neighborhood isn't going to spill over. i talked to people about this every day, and i got to tell you, you're alone. >> yes, you can build a model that has this all the way going out to let's say iran and closing the strait of hormuz, but this would take a real series of reactions, one after the other to imagine the supply of oil being reduced as a result of this. it's a very complex model to imagine that. >> do you think, j